Low-Tax States Gain U.S. House Seats as High-Tax States Lose Them — Even Amid Redistricting Battles

Recent redistricting news in Virginia highlights how intense the fight over congressional power has become. Virginia’s Democratic-controlled legislature advanced new congressional maps that could significantly reduce Republican representation in the state’s 11-seat U.S. House delegation, prompting debate over partisan map drawing and a planned April voter referendum on the changes.

While this story has grabbed headlines, it reflects only one chapter in a much larger national story about how population shifts are reshaping political influence in America. When viewed in the broader context of census reapportionment and long-term migration patterns, the news from Virginia sits alongside a much more enduring trend: political power in the U.S. is migrating toward lower-tax, growth-oriented states and away from high-cost states with slower population growth.

The 2030 Reapportionment Outlook

Across three independent projections, the median estimate shows clear gains for Sun Belt and Interior West states following the 2030 census.

Projected seat gains:

• Texas: +4

• Florida: +3

• Arizona: +1

• Georgia: +1

• Idaho: +1

• North Carolina: +1

• Utah: +1

Projected seat losses:

• California: -4

• New York: -2

• Illinois: -1

• Pennsylvania: -1

• Minnesota: -1

• Oregon: -1

• Rhode Island: -1

The result is a net shift of roughly twelve seats in the U.S. House and twelve Electoral College votes toward lower-tax states in 2030 alone.

Looking ahead to 2040, projections indicate that another ten or more seats could move in the same direction if current migration patterns persist.

Why Population Is Moving

The migration pattern is not random. States gaining representation tend to share common policy characteristics:

• Lower or no state income taxes

• Right-to-work protections

• Expanded education choice

• More stable and predictable tort systems

• Faster housing growth and permitting

Twelve states are currently working toward joining the eight states that already levy no income tax. That policy competition reflects a broader shift toward growth-oriented governance.

By contrast, states that maintain higher tax burdens, restrictive labor policies, and heavier regulatory frameworks are experiencing slower population growth or net outmigration. When residents leave, representation declines.

Federalism at Work

Reapportionment translates population change directly into political power. Fewer residents mean fewer representatives in the U.S. House and fewer Electoral College votes in presidential elections.

This dynamic reinforces a fundamental feature of federalism: states compete. When policy environments differ, residents compare costs, opportunities, and quality of life. Over time, these decisions reshape national political influence.

The redistricting news from Virginia underscores how contested representation battles can be in the short term. But over the long term, the much larger story is the sustained migration of people — and consequentially House seats — toward states with policies that attract families and businesses. The 2030 census is on track to formalize a shift that has been underway for more than a decade, and if current trends continue, the move toward lower-tax, opportunity-oriented states will only deepen.