CBO Data Debunks the Medicaid Cuts Narrative

Americans keep hearing that Washington is cutting Medicaid. Paragon Health Institute looked at the actual numbers from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), and the claim does not hold up.

CBO’s new presentation on federal health subsidies shows federal Medicaid spending rising every year. Medicaid is projected to grow from $708 billion in 2026 to $981 billion in 2036, a 39 percent increase. CBO also projects federal Medicaid spending will total $8.4 trillion from 2026 through 2036.

Washington can debate how to reform Medicaid, protect taxpayers, and strengthen program integrity. It should not call rising annual spending a cut.

Paragon Is Right to Call Out the Spin

Paragon is responding to the same political message Americans hear over and over again. Opponents of reform claim Republicans are slashing Medicaid and driving a health care affordability crisis.

CFE agrees with Paragon because CBO’s spending projections directly undercut the Medicaid cuts narrative. CBO projects Medicaid spending to increase every year, even after reforms enacted through the 2025 “One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act.”

The word “cut” should mean spending goes down. Under CBO’s projections, federal Medicaid spending goes up. Only in Washington, DC is a massive increase in government called a “spending cut” merely because the increase is less than it could have been.

CBO Shows Growth, Not Cuts

CBO does show Medicaid spending below the agency’s January 2025 projections. Actual federal Medicaid spending still keeps rising.

The program grows by $273 billion from 2026 to 2036 and remains one of the largest federal health entitlements in the budget. A family, business, or state government would not call a 39 percent spending increase a cut.

Medicaid Still Needs Reform

Medicaid should serve low-income families, seniors, people with disabilities, pregnant women, children, and other eligible Americans who rely on the program. Protecting those beneficiaries requires careful spending and stronger program integrity.

CBO’s presentation shows why reform is needed. Monthly Treasury Statement data show fiscal year 2026 already included two of the highest Medicaid spending months on record. Congress should reduce improper enrollment, examine state financing gimmicks, crack down on waste, and make sure federal Medicaid dollars support eligible patients.

CFE Takeaway

CBO projects federal Medicaid spending will rise every year and increase by 39 percent from 2026 to 2036. The Medicaid cuts claim does not survive contact with the data.

Paragon is right to call out the spin, and CFE agrees. Congress should protect Medicaid for the truly eligible, strengthen oversight, and stop allowing Washington to call slower spending growth a cut.